Flash Flooding Threat as Tropical Storm Jerry Makes Its Way Across the Leeward Islands

BRIDGETOWN, Barbados – The center of Tropical Storm Jerry is expected to pass north of the Leeward Islands this morning and then move away from the islands later on Friday, with residents in those islands being warned to be prepared for flash flooding.

The Miami-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) said that the 10th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season is expected to bring heavy rainfall across the region on Friday and has maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour (mph).

The storm is about 80 miles, northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for St. Barthelemy, St. Martin, Sint Maarten, Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Saba and St. Eustatius.

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Barbuda and Anguilla, as well as the Tropical Storm Watch for Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat.

The NHC said that Jerry is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph and a turn towards the north is expected tonight into Saturday, followed by a northward to north-northeastward motion through the rest of the weekend.

“On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will continue passing to the north of the Leeward Islands this morning, then move away from the islands later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but slow strengthening is possible over the weekend,” the NHC said.

It said that through Friday, four to six inches of rain are expected across the island of Barbuda. Elsewhere across the Leeward and Virgin Islands, two to  four 4 inches of rain are expected.

“This rainfall brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in steep terrain. For portions of Puerto Rico, moisture associated with Jerry combined with local orographic effects may result in up to two to four inches of rain, with isolated amounts of six inches possible.”

Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

These swells are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater Antilles today and tonight,’ the NHC added.