WASHINGTON, DC – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says that Guyana’s economic transformation is advancing at “a strong pace and broadening in scale.”
After concluding its 2025 Article IV Consultation with top Guyanese authorities, an IMF team, led by Alina Carare and Lusine Lusinyan, on Friday attributed that “strong pace” to rapidly expanding oil production, strong non-oil output and large-scale public infrastructure investment, supported the highest real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in the world, at a recorded average of 47 percent in 2022–24.
The Washington-based financial institution said its team met virtually and in Georgetown, the Guyanese capital, for the 2025 Article IV Consultation during February 24–March 7, 2025.
The IMF said discussions were held with Vice-President Dr. Bharrat Jagdeo, Finance Minister Dr. Ashni Singh, Minister of Parliamentary Affairs and Governance Gail Teixeira, Central Bank Governor Dr. Gobind Ganga, other senior officials, representatives from the private sector, banks, labor unions, and other stakeholders.
The IMF team said non-oil economy continues to reflect a “solid broad-based performance across sectors”, especially construction and services.
It said real GDP and real non-oil GDP are projected to grow by about 10¼ percent and 13 percent in 2025, respectively.
Inflation is expected to edge up to around 4 percent by end-2025 from close to 3 percent in end-2024, the team said.
It said that, following a strong fiscal impulse in 2024, the budget deficit is expected to narrow from 7.3 percent of GDP to just below 5 percent of GDP in 2025, as higher oil revenues more than offset the projected increase in spending.
The IMF team said the large current account surplus of 24½ percent of GDP in 2024 is projected to moderate to about 9 percent of GDP in 2025, reflecting the imports of the fourth oil Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel.
“The medium-term economic outlook remains highly favorable with balanced risks,” said the team, with the economy is expected to grow on average 14 percent per year over the next five years, “driven by robust oil production amid a growing share of the non-oil sector.”
It said non-oil GDP is projected to expand on average by about 6¾ percent per year.
The IMF said risks to the outlook are broadly balanced. On the upside, it said further oil discoveries and productivity-enhancing investments, including to strengthen energy resilience would further bolster Guyana’s economic prospects.
“Downside risks stem from overheating pressures which, if not contained, could lead to higher inflation and real exchange rate appreciation beyond the level consistent with a balanced expansion of the economy,” it said.
The IMF team warned that commodity price volatility in a highly uncertain global environment and climate shocks could also adversely affect inflation and alter the macroeconomic outlook.
The IMF staff commended the authorities’ continued commitment to maintaining macroeconomic stability, ensuring fiscal sustainability, and fostering inclusive growth.
“While there are no clear signs of overheating, enhancing the close monitoring of macroeconomic developments and continuing to proactively respond through tighter policies would be essential to ensure that the economy avoids overheating and remains on a balanced expansion path,” the team said.
It said it assessed that social transfer policies implemented in recent years have increased disposable income and reduced the poverty rate.
Going forward, the team said additional targeted transfers, integrated into a medium-term fiscal framework, could further support inclusive growth and help Guyana advance faster toward its sustainable development goal (SDG) of no poverty.
“Given Guyana’s development and investment needs, the fiscal policy stance is appropriate at this stage, and the fiscal deficits should gradually close over the medium term,” the IMF team said.
It said the increase in the withdrawal ceiling from the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) in early 2024 provided room for a substantial expansion of capital expenditure, which reached over 12½ percent of GDP in 2024.
The IMF team recommended gradually closing the overall fiscal deficit by 2031, followed by a narrowing of the non-oil primary deficit over the (conservatively) projected lifespan of oil reserves to “the levels consistent with ensuring intergenerational equity and preserving fiscal and macroeconomic sustainability.”
The team said that implementing a comprehensive medium-term fiscal framework with an explicit anchor and an operational target, further modernizing public financial management systems, and conducting regular expenditure reviews to continually assess spending efficiency and effectiveness in reaching the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will also help further strengthen fiscal discipline and transparency.
The IMF said monetary policy remains “appropriately tight, helping contain inflation.”
It said maintaining broad money growth in line with non-oil GDP growth, continuing to carefully manage liquidity in the banking system, and tightening monetary policy further, if signs of overheating or imbalances emerge, remain “key to guarding against inflationary pressures.”
The team said that enhancing the monetary policy toolkit, including through strengthening the interest rate channel, reducing excess liquidity where needed, and taking steps toward deepening financial markets would help strengthen the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission.
“Maintaining consistent policies will continue supporting the current stabilized exchange rate regime, which remains appropriate,” it said.
As Guyana’s economy continues to transform, a reassessment of the exchange rate framework could be beneficial in the medium term, the team recommended.
It said there is scope to strengthen macroprudential framework to help effectively respond to potential shocks to financial stability.
The IMF team said the current macroprudential framework could be enhanced to link it to the real-time supervisory framework.
The IMF staff welcomed the Bank of Guyana’s interest to engage with the IMF on technical assistance to develop macroprudential tools.
It said improving data collection and statistics on corporate and household balance sheets and real estate prices will be “critical to support strengthening banking supervision and the move towards broad-based risk-based financial supervision.”
The IMF team noted that the Guyanese authorities have advanced in enhancing governance of the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) and modernizing public sector operations.
It said the Guyanese authorities have also made “good progress” in modernizing their revenue administration capacity.
The team said the procurement framework is being upgraded, “improving public access to information about procurement opportunities and processes and building capacity among public officials.”
As part of broader digitalization efforts in public sector service delivery, the team also noted that work is ongoing to introduce e-procurement.
The IMF staff supported Guyana’s continued efforts to strengthen its Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) and anti-corruption frameworks in line with its international commitments.
It said Guyana’s Mutual Evaluation Report by the Caribbean Financial Action Task Force (CFATF), published in 2024, found a “significant improvement” in Guyana’s efforts to improve its understanding of money laundering and terrorism financing (ML/FT) risks via the conduct of multiple ML/FT risk assessments, including a 2023 sectoral risk assessment on the Extractive Industries.
The IMF said continued implementation of reforms will further strengthen fiscal transparency and anti-corruption frameworks, including in extractive industries.
It said internal audit capabilities are expanding, adding that more effort is needed to ensure a timely publication of audit reports of some public companies and local authorities.
The IMF team noted that Guyana remains a global pioneer in climate policies monetizing forest conservation, and that the authorities are enhancing the country’s energy matrix, strengthening macroeconomic resilience.
Against climate change vulnerabilities stemming from sea level rise and flooding, the IMF team said the authorities are working to prioritize actions as outlined in the Guyana’s Low Carbon Development Strategy 2030 to build resilience, further promote sustainable forestry, and enhance biodiversity conservation.
“The Gas-to-Energy project is expected to secure reliable electricity provision countrywide as a transition toward a cleaner and more renewable energy mix over the longer term,” the team said.
It said it supported the authorities’ efforts to foster inclusive growth, economic diversification, and upgrading of labor skills.
It said addressing labor shortages and skill mismatches through training and vocational education is “key to supporting the ongoing economic expansion and increasing women participation in the labor markets.”
The IMF staff commended the Guyanese authorities for reforms and investments to boost productivity, trade connectivity and export diversification, including through high value-added products in agriculture and manufacturing.
The staff also welcomed the authorities’ ongoing efforts to modernize official statistics and offered further support through capacity development.
In this context, the staff said further enhancements to the national accounts and price statistics to capture the rapidly evolving economy “remain a key priority.”
“The updated household budget survey, planned to be finalized by 2027, and regular labor force surveys will also help shape and refine government policies.”
