'Somewhat Below-Average’ Atlantic Hurricane Season For 2026?

COLORADO – Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane researchers are predicting a somewhat below-average Atlantic hurricane season in their initial 2026 forecast.

Phil KlotzbachCSU’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling, and Software Team within the Department of Atmospheric Science has cited the forecast of a robust El Niño as a primary factor for their prediction of 13 named storms of which they anticipate six to become hurricanes and two to become major – Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale- hurricanes.

“So far, the 2026 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023 seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and lead author of the report.

“Our analog seasons ranged from well below-average Atlantic hurricane activity to somewhat above average. While the average of our analog seasons is somewhat below normal, the large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the high levels of uncertainty that typically are associated with our early April outlook.”

CSU said the numbers are below the long-term seasonal average of 14, seven and three, respectively.

“El Niño, a recurring climate pattern that is characterized by warmer than normal water in the eastern and central tropical Pacific, tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic,” CSU said.

“These winds result in increased vertical wind shear, which is unfavorable for Atlantic hurricane formation and intensification. Moderate to strong El Niño events generally have a stronger tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear impact than weak El Niño events,” it added, stating that the tropical Pacific currently has weak La Niña conditions.

CSU said La Niña is effectively the opposite of El Niño and is characterized by cooler than normal waters in the eastern and central tropical Pacific.

“However, these conditions are forecast to rapidly transition to El Niño in the next few months,” CSU said.

While the intensity of the likely El Niño is uncertain, CSU said its team anticipates that a moderate to strong El Niño is most likely by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August–October.

CSU said that, currently, waters in the western tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal, while they are slightly cooler than normal in the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic.

“Overall, currently observed sea surface temperatures across the tropical and subtropical Atlantic present mixed signals for the upcoming hurricane season. Warmer waters in the western Atlantic would favor above-normal activity, while cooler waters in the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic would favor below-normal activity.

“A warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water.“

Additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricane formation.”

Given the mixed signals in the Atlantic and the potential for a moderate to strong El Niño, the CSU forecast team is predicting a “somewhat below-normal 2026 season.”

The authors noted that their initial April forecast is historically less accurate compared to those that follow in each season due to the considerable changes that can occur in the atmosphere and ocean between April and the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August to October.

The CSU team is predicting 13 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. Of those, researchers forecast six to become hurricanes and two to reach major hurricane strength, with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.

The team also based its forecasts on a statistical model, as well as three models that use a combination of information and predictions of large-scale conditions from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the UK Met Office, and the Centro EuroMediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici.

CSU said these models use 25 to 40 years of historical hurricane seasons and evaluate variables such as Atlantic Ocean surface temperature, sea level pressure, vertical wind shear, the ENSO phenomenon, and other factors.

“So far, the 2026 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023 seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and lead author of the report.

“Our analog seasons ranged from well below-average Atlantic hurricane activity to somewhat above average. While the average of our analog seasons is somewhat below normal, the large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the high levels of uncertainty that typically are associated with our early April outlook.”

CSU said the most significant hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was Hurricane Melissa, which made landfall as a Category 5 hurricane in Jamaica, resulting in more than nine billion US dollars in damage and causing 95 fatalities across the Caribbean.